The number of homes available for sale (“inventory”) follows a regular, seasonal pattern: lowest in the winter, highest in the summer. Inventory would normally be falling by this time of year – but so far it hasn’t. That’s an encouraging sign for buyers because: 1) more homes = more opportunities, and 2) rising inventory levels could slow home price appreciation.

Slowing, but still rising

Despite average 30-yr mortgage rates briefly exceeding 8% during October, home prices continued to rise. The housing data providers Black Knight and Core Logic both saw home prices climb 0.2% month-over-month in October. Year-to-date, home prices are now up 6% nationwide. On a $400K house, that’s $24,000 in appreciation – in less than 1 year! Owning a home builds wealth.

Mortgage rates move lower

The latest inflation figures (up just +3% YoY in October) and employment data (job openings at lowest levels since March 21) were exactly what the Fed wants to see. The rate hike cycle is clearly over. The resulting market excitement helped drive average 30-yr mortgage rates down by 1 full percentage point in the last 6 weeks, knocking several hundred dollars off the average mortgage payment.